Wednesday, August 19, 2020
MEDIA RELEASE
La Niña ALERT—likelihood of La Niña in the coming months
has increased
The current neutral condition of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is likely to
change over the next couple of months. Indicators such as the surface of the tropical Pacific
Ocean continues to cool and changes in tropical weather patterns have already been
observed. All climate model outlooks suggest there is 70% chance of La Niña forming in
the coming months in 2020.
Because of the La Nina condition, rainfall across most of the Solomon Islands is expected
to be wetter than normal in the coming months. The strength of a La Niña does not always
indicate how much it will influence Solomon Islands rainfall. Historically, there are
examples where weak events have resulted in wetter than normal in some parts of the
country while other times strong events have resulted in relatively modest impacts.
The La Niña is also going to be the main driver for tropical cyclone formation at least for
the early part of the 2020/2021 cyclone season. The La Niña is likely to displace the
Tropical Cyclone genesis area southwest of its long-term average position. Historically,
data shows that tropical cyclones were less frequent in La Niña years than in El Niño years
because of the cooler sea surface temperature associated with the La Nina.
All stakeholders and communities in the Solomon Islands should prepare for the coming
months and listen out on SIBC for any extreme weather and climate events.
Contact details
For more information on this topic, please contact the Director, Mr David Hiriasia or
Deputy Director, Lloyd Tahani at the Solomon Islands Meteorological Services on:
SOLOMON ISLANDS GOVERNMENT
Ministry of Environment, Climate Change, Disaster Management and Meteorology
SOLOMON ISLANDS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
P.O BOX 21
HONIARA.
SOLOMON ISLANDS.
PHONE: 00 677 27658 or 933 Climate Section: (677) 24218 FAX: 00 677 23029
Web site: http://www.met.gov.sb
Phone: 20332 or 24218
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